Decision-making in the Post-Truth Era
- Hinata Tanaka
- Apr 16
- 7 min read
Hello, this is Sunny Risk Management.
Today's topic is “Post-Truth,” which I have covered before: the world has been rocked by the U.S. “America First” policy as Donald Trump reassumes the U.S. presidency starting in January 2025. In the wake of the re-emergence of the Trump administration, a major user of “post-truth politics,” let's take another look at post-truth and what we can do about it.
[ Index ]
What is Post-Truth?
Post-truth can be explained as “a state in which feelings and beliefs take precedence over facts” in the formation of public opinion. Post-truth is also called “post-truth,” and the word “post” at the beginning of the word has the nuance of “after,” so you get the idea of a state in which facts are secondary.
Marshall et al. (2018) examined the identity of post-truth based on the politics of the United Kingdom upon the referendum on leaving the European Union in 2016 (Brexit politics) and the referendum. The study found that the combination of two factors, “changes in social networking-related technologies” and “growing distrust of tradition and expertise,” led to a greater tendency for the British public to make emotionally-driven decisions than before, indicating that post-truth is not a minor technique used in politics or the media, but a Post-truth is not just a small technique used in politics or the media, but a new phenomenon that is gaining public attention.
The Coming of the Post-Truth Era
We have been hearing more and more about “post-truth” in the wake of Brexit. Emotion-driven decision-making is not something that just popped up in 2016...Since ancient times, people have made choices based on “good feelings” or choosing “the one they like better,” and not a few people would have had reasons such as “this person feels familiar” or “It looks good” when choosing a candidate to vote for in an election.
However, this trend became more pronounced in 2016, when the Brexit policy was advanced and the United Kingdom decided to leave the European Union. Since then, the same form of information dissemination and public opinion formation as that of Brexit has been taking place around the world and has become a kind of standard, and the present era is called the “post-truth era” This is why the current era is called the “Post-Truth Era.
Why do people prioritize feelings and beliefs over facts?
Now that we have briefly looked at “what is post-truth,” let's delve into “why post-truth (the dominance of emotions over facts) occurs in humans.
The simple answer to the question, “Why do we prioritize feelings and beliefs over facts?” might be, “Because it is comfortable, because it is easy.” Making decisions based on facts requires three main processes: understanding the facts themselves and their background, understanding the facts and related information, and judging or reconciling whether the facts are consistent with or approximate one's thinking. However, when making decisions based on feelings and beliefs, one can trust information through a very simple route, based only on emotional movements such as “I think something is good,” “I was moved,” or “That person I trust said that,” regardless of the truth or falsity of the information. Since decisions can be made without thinking, this may be a rational method in a sense in terms of “judging a lot of information” in today's world of information overload.
However, behind this method of decision-making is a psychological effect called confirmation bias. This is a characteristic that all humans possess, which is to affirm one's own preconceptions and beliefs, gather only information that supports them, and ignore or eliminate information that denies them. We are unknowingly designed to believe only what we want to believe.
This nature is also manifested in the bias of information in the media. For example, newspapers and TV stations have different target readers and viewers depending on their political ideology, political party support, and social class, and the content of their articles and programs are naturally tailored accordingly. Even from the standpoint of political ideology alone, the world's media are diverse, ranging from the far right to the far left, some are neutral, some are propaganda-oriented, and some are...If you spend your time only in contact with certain newspapers and broadcasters, it is easy to become biased in the information and ideas you obtain.
How to avoid being swayed by emotionally-charged information
In recent years, the spread and growth of social networking services (SNS) in Japan (where the author is located) has not only weakened the momentum of the mass media but has even made some people distrustful of it. Some of these people will say, "Everyone is being deceived by the mass media! The truth is written on SNS! They are hiding this ‘truth’ because it is inconvenient." So, what is the nature of information dissemination on such social networking sites?
Each social networking platform has its terms of use. However, unlike mass media, no code of ethics applies to all people and organizations that transmit information on SNS. In addition, anyone with an account can post information on social networking sites, and except for content that is too violate or related to a crime, most of it will remain without being removed by the platformer. Hoaxes, fakes, whatever. It may be overly emotional or based on factually incorrect information to get viewers to agree with its own opinion. Extreme statements, slander against a particular person, or “anything goes” as long as it is not regulated.
Social Media is a media that promotes the tendency to “believe what you want to believe” more than mass media, as it is overflowing with a mixture of information. Sunstein (2007) defines (a) a filter bubble as "the isolation of the information a person sees in his or her value bubble." This is due to the algorithms built into social networking sites, which automatically recommend similar posts by liking, watching for a long time, commenting, saving, and reposting, even if the person does not wish to do so, thereby gradually narrowing the range of information and completing the filter bubble. The filter bubble is completed. Sasahara (2018) explains that an (b)echo chamber is “when you send out a message on a social networking service, and you receive a response with opinions similar to your own” by following users with similar interests and concerns on social networking services, it becomes easier to recommend the content of interest to you. The occurrence of echo chambers further accelerates the filter bubble.
Thus, social networking has different characteristics than mass media, and, likely, many people are already trapped in a filter bubble and continue to reverberate in echo chambers. When this happens, we can no longer trust the mass media. This is because social networking is a medium that provides us with information that is convenient for us, one after another. If you are absorbed in the post-truth era, you may consider those who provide convenient information to be righteous, and those who provide information that differs from your ideas or is inconvenient to you, even if it is true, to be evil.
In order not to be swayed by “emotionally charged information,” which is predominant in the post-truth era, it is necessary to keep the following four points in mind:
✅ Identify who is the source of the information
(e.g., public agencies, politicians, experts, companies, influencers, etc.)
✅Compare the information with multiple sources
(national and international media, accounts with different positions)
✅Take a “breath” when you become emotional
(e.g., “6-second rule,” take a deep breath first)
✅Check to see if the story is told with evidence-based numbers and data.
(“Numbers don't lie, but liars use numbers.”)
Creating the habit of judging things logically
Many small techniques can be tried on a daily basis to counteract post-truths. The following are examples
Knowing your biased tendencies
(Use checklists and diagnostic tools/metacognition)
Practice separating facts from opinions and feelings
(Draw a line between fact and opinion and read the text/write down the facts while observing the scenery)
Develop a habit of not believing immediately and doubting once
(Take it as a hypothesis and verify it from the aspect of information from public institutions and academia)
Try to get in touch with opinions from different perspectives
(Organize the background of each position, such as which parts are different and why they think so)
In particular, learning about one's bias tendencies and practicing separating opinions/feelings from facts are effective methods that can be done in between conversations with others, reading, and gathering information. Improving your critical thinking skills through these can help you judge things based on facts rather than feelings, and can be used as a countermeasure for post-truth.
How to Live Wisely in the Post-Truth Era
The “post-truth” era is an era in which emotions prevail over objective facts, and the post-truth era has become pervasive. To survive in this era, it is more important to be calm and look at the facts, rather than being swayed by emotions or words that appeal to the heart.
Various types of information that pervade our society, especially those related to politics, social conditions, incidents, accidents, disasters, medicine, health, and other topics that are closely connected to our daily lives or that cause us to feel fear, are prone to demagogies, fakes, and conspiracy theories, so we need to be especially conscious of the three steps of knowing, doubting, and confirming.
By having as many people as possible learn about post-truth first, and developing the ability to survive in the post-truth era through the above measures and literacy improvement, it will lead to a healthy information distribution and composition of public opinion in society as a whole.
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